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Chiefs reach midseason at 6-2 with a Walker-led offense and questions about Mahomes' elbow
ESPN's midseason report credits Kenneth Walker III for the Chiefs' 6-2 start. Mahomes' elbow and the pass protection are the questions heading to Atlanta.
The Kansas City Chiefs hit the halfway point at 6-2. In its midseason report, ESPN gives most of the credit to running back Kenneth Walker III. ESPN's Football Power Index ranks Kansas City seventh and gives it a 95.9% chance of making the playoffs. Its odds of winning the AFC West are lower, at 42.6%, behind Denver's 57.0%.
Walker has been the engine. ESPN's Eric Moody puts him in the top two among running backs in rushing yards, total touchdowns, explosive runs and missed tackles forced. The defense has forced 11 takeaways. The passing game has worked under tight limits. Patrick Mahomes ranks last among 31 qualifying quarterbacks in air yards per attempt, yet he is ninth in yards per attempt at 7.7. Beat writer Nate Taylor notes that Mahomes has not completed a pass of more than 20 air yards since Week 4, when receiver Tyquan Thornton dislocated an ankle in the win at Las Vegas.
The bigger concern is health. Mahomes hurt his right elbow against the Jets, and Taylor writes that the injury could linger for the rest of the season. He ties it to shaky pass protection from rookie left tackle Kahlil Benson and right tackle Jaylon Moore. According to Athlon Sports, an MRI showed no significant damage, and Andy Reid called his quarterback day-to-day. KMBC reported Wednesday that Mahomes said the elbow is improving and he expects to play Sunday. The club also added a receiver at the deadline. ESPN reported that Kansas City sent 2027 fourth- and fifth-round picks to Indianapolis for Josh Downs and a 2027 seventh-rounder.
What it means for Atlanta
The Chiefs play at the Falcons on Sunday, Nov. 15, on CBS. Over eight games, Kansas City has outscored opponents 202-143, about 25.3 points a game for and 17.9 against. The split is clear: they are 4-0 at home and 2-2 on the road. The trip to Atlanta follows a 35-12 home win over the Jets. Before that came back-to-back road losses at Seattle (20-3) and Denver (28-24).
ESPN's index ranks Atlanta 24th and gives the Falcons a 5.7% chance of making the playoffs. Bijan Robinson leads the league in rushing yards. Michael Penix Jr. completes 34% of his passes under pressure, the worst rate among quarterbacks with at least 50 such dropbacks. The Falcons traded safety Jessie Bates III at the deadline, but they also beat San Francisco when the 49ers were still unbeaten. With Penix struggling under pressure, Kansas City's pass rush has a clear matchup to target.
On this site's board, the Chiefs are favored at -178 on the moneyline at Novig, with Atlanta at +174. Novig has Kansas City at -3.5 at +111. The best price anywhere among the 12 venues is DraftKings at -3, priced at -120. Novig's total sits at 47.5, a point above DraftKings' 46.5. Sportsbook hold runs from 3.1% to 4.7% on the moneyline and 4.5% to 5.1% on the spread.
The early board for the following week's home game against Arizona has the Chiefs favored at -1150 on Novig, and the spread elsewhere is around 14 points. Season results and schedule are on the Chiefs team page.