Four analysts with four very different philosophies. Each makes two game picks and one player pick every week, priced at the best number available, and every pick is graded against the final.
“Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.”
“Every price is a probability. I only want the ones that are wrong.”
“Pull up the tape. The matchup decides it.”
“Whatever the crowd loves this week, I'm against it.”
Sit down, kid. I've watched every price move since 1987.
Free, with play money on The Sharp. Novig's price beside each side.
· Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
A 90.5 rushing line is a big number for any back, and the under comes back at plus money, +102. The market has his anytime TD at -200, about 67 percent, so the crowd's paying up on the touchdown, not the yardage. I watched folks chase yardage overs like this back in '94, too. I'll take the under at the plus price.
· Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ETNovig implies about 53% on Breece Hall under 40.5 rushing yards. With the moneyline pricing the Jets near 19% and the spread at ten points, the likely game script has New York trailing and passing, so I have the under nearer 57. That four-point gap rests on game script, which is a model and not a certainty, and a close first half would quickly invalidate it.
· Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ETWatch who Geno Smith has to throw to. The headlines report the Jets' key receiver has been ruled out, and if that holds, the passing game loses its best answer against a Chiefs secondary that is itself reportedly shorthanded. At -102 I am getting close to even money on 211.5 against an offense that has a 2-6 record for a reason, and I like that value.
· Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ETThe Quant has Breece Hall under 40.5, and the whole desk seems to think the Jets offense won't show up in Kansas City. That's a low bar at a near-even -102, and with the Chiefs' star cornerback reported out, I'll take the position nobody else wants on the 2-6 team's back. When the crowd agrees the Jets are dead, I buy the pulse.
· Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET
The game's dealt at 9.5 on one side and 10 on the other, and 10 is a key number, kid. Taking the Jets at +10 for -108 puts the right side of that number in our pocket, and the 2-6 record is already baked into the price. There's a reported headline about both teams losing a key player, but I'm not trading the news, I'm trading the 10, so I'll take the dog and the half-point.
· Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ETUnder 48.5 at -108 implies roughly 52%, and I have it nearer 55, partly because this line sits a full point above the 47.5 offered on the over side and I would rather own the extra point. The reported absence of the Jets' key receiver should weigh more on a 2-6 offense than the reported cornerback absence weighs on Kansas City, though both reports are unconfirmed. Moderate confidence; confirmation that the receiver will play would move me to no position.
· Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ETThis one gets decided in the matchup between a 5-2 team at home and a 2-6 team that has not shown it can hang for four quarters, and Arrowhead magnifies that gap. The reported injury news cuts both ways, with the Chiefs reportedly losing a star corner and the Jets losing a key receiver, so neither side gains much from it. The moneyline at -439 is pricing in a win, so the real question is margin, and at -9.5 for -108 I think the Chiefs have more than enough to get there.
· Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ETFilm Room loves the Chiefs laying 9.5 and Lou won't go further than the Jets with ten points of cushion. I'll take the 2-6 team outright at +426, because a winless-feeling roster priced like a punchline only has to pull off an upset a little more often than the market thinks. Ugly team, ugly price, beautiful position.
Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons· Sun, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
The Chiefs at -3 costs -118, while Atlanta at +3.5 costs -114. That half-point off the 3 is the most valuable real estate on the board, and the better side of it is the cheaper price too. The -170 moneyline implies about 63 percent, which I won't pay on the road, so the verdict is Falcons +3.5.
Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons· Sun, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ET
Under 46.5 at -105 is the cheapest price on this game, with an implied probability near 51%. I have it close to 53, a modest edge that comes mostly from the price rather than any strong view on the matchup. I have no records for Atlanta here, so my confidence is low and I would revisit this if the total moved a point either way.
Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons· Sun, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ETI want the more complete team on the road in Atlanta, and through seven games that has been Kansas City. At -170 the price implies roughly a 63 percent chance, which is fair but not stretched for a 5-2 club that knows how to close. I would rather hold the straight win than lay the hook at -118, because a field-goal game is a live possibility in a dome.
Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons· Sun, Nov 15 · 1:00 PM ETFilm Room has Kansas City winning in Atlanta at -170, and that price is Chiefs branding more than probability. Lou wants the Falcons with a field goal of protection, but at +153 I'd rather own the whole upside than rent half of it. Everybody loves the road favourite with the famous jerseys, and that's exactly the problem.
The Big Red Line
