Madden simulation picks the Falcons to edge the Chiefs, 21-19, in Atlanta

The video game is not buying the Kansas City Chiefs this week. Arrowhead Pride's weekly Madden NFL 27 simulation has the 3-6 Atlanta Falcons beating the 6-2 Chiefs 21-19 on Sunday. The pick carries some weight because the simulation has called the winner correctly in seven of eight games this season.

In the sim, Kansas City kicked a field goal for a 3-0 lead after one quarter. Atlanta then scored 14 points in the second quarter and was still up 14-6 going into the fourth. The Chiefs got back within two late but could not finish the comeback. The result also matches the full-season Madden run the outlet did before Week 1, which had Kansas City losing in Atlanta, 31-17. The site's writers see it differently. In Arrowhead Pride's staff predictions, the Chiefs win by 7 to 10 points, though one writer said Bijan Robinson will be the best running back Kansas City has faced since Jonathan Taylor in Week 2.

The injury report favors the Chiefs. The Falcoholic reported that Patrick Mahomes, listed with knee and right elbow injuries, practiced fully on Thursday, as did Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. That is good news after the elbow scare Mahomes had in last week's win over the Jets. Offensive lineman Jaylon Moore (ankle) missed practice again, and Arrowhead Pride's final report lists Kenneth Walker as questionable. On Atlanta's side, receiver Zachariah Branch (hamstring) and linebacker Divine Deablo (forearm) did not practice Thursday, and several defenders were limited. The Falcons have their bye next week.

What it means for Sunday in Atlanta

Kansas City heads to Atlanta on a split record over its last four games. The Chiefs lost 20-3 at Seattle and 28-24 at Denver, then beat the Chargers 22-6 and beat the Jets 35-12 at home last week. On the road they are 2-2. Wins at Miami and Las Vegas came before the two road losses in a row. Over eight games they have scored 182 points and allowed 143. Most of that margin came from home wins over Denver and the Jets, plus the shutdown of the Chargers.

The market lines up with the staff rather than the simulation. On this site's board, which covers 12 venues, the Chiefs are favored at -163 on the moneyline at Novig, and Atlanta is +160. Novig has Kansas City at -3.5 for +115. The shortest number anywhere is Pinnacle's Chiefs -3 at -111. That half point makes Novig's price an outlier, since most other venues sit at the key number of 3. Sportsbook hold on the spread runs from 3.1% to 4.8%. Novig has the total at 47.5, priced -100 on the over and -104 on the under, while BetRivers has 46.5 at -120 on the over. The full Chiefs-Falcons board is refreshed about every ten minutes.

If the Chiefs win, they would be 7-2 heading into a home game against Arizona on November 22. Kansas City is favored at -1076 at Novig for that game, and Kalshi has the best Chiefs price at -788. The spread for that game sits around 14 points (Cardinals-Chiefs board). Before that, the Chiefs have to win in Atlanta, where the simulation says they lose. More on the season is on the Chiefs team page.