Chiefs head to Atlanta with Mahomes' elbow the question hanging over a 3-6 Falcons team

The Kansas City Chiefs go into Sunday's trip to Atlanta as the clearly better team on paper. The open question is who plays quarterback. Patrick Mahomes hurt his elbow on a hit from Jets edge rusher David Bailey late in the first half of last week's 35-12 win. He came back and finished 23 of 31 for 242 yards and two touchdowns. Yahoo Sports reported that an MRI found no significant damage, only a strain or sprain, and Andy Reid called him day-to-day. Mahomes said the issue now is managing the pain, and he told reporters, "I feel like I'm in a great spot."

Writing for SB Nation, Dave Choate of the Falcons site The Falcoholic said there is a real chance Atlanta sees backup Justin Fields instead. In his view, Fields is a threat as a runner and protects the ball, but the passing game would take a big step down without Mahomes. The Chiefs also have a new receiver. CBS Sports reported that Kansas City got Josh Downs and a 2027 seventh-round pick from Indianapolis at the deadline, giving up 2027 fourth- and fifth-round picks. Downs has had less than a week to learn the offense.

Choate's breakdown points to the run game as the biggest problem for Atlanta. Kenneth Walker, signed in free agency, leads all backs in yards per game, trails only Bijan Robinson in total rushing yards and has not fumbled. The Falcons' run defense has slipped over the last month, and Tampa Bay ran all over it two weeks ago. Choate also noted that Kansas City's defense ranks in the top ten against both the run and the pass by several efficiency measures. That is a hard draw for Michael Penix Jr., who has struggled under pressure, and for Corey Levin, who is new as Atlanta's full-time center. He also flagged one possible weak spot for the Chiefs in a close game: Harrison Butker has had a rough season.

What it means for Sunday

The two records are far apart. Kansas City is 6-2 and has scored 202 points while allowing 143, about 25 a game for and 18 against. It has won its last two, beating the Chargers 22-6 and the Jets by 23, after back-to-back road losses at Seattle and Denver. All of the Chiefs' wins at home have come at Arrowhead, where they are 4-0. On the road they are 2-2. Atlanta is 3-6 and, by Choate's account, has been on a slide.

The Chiefs are favored. On the game board, Novig has Kansas City at -170 on the moneyline and Atlanta at +167. Novig's spread is Chiefs -3.5 at +111. Pinnacle's best price for the Chiefs is a half point shorter, -3 at -115. That half point across the key number of three is the main gap among the 12 venues. The total shows the same half-point spread: Novig has 47.5, with the over at -100 and the under at -104, while DraftKings offers the best over price at 46.5 for -110. Sportsbook hold runs from 3.0 to 4.9 percent on the sides.

No matter who plays quarterback, the Chiefs are only a slim favorite against the spread. That says the market is giving some weight to Mahomes' elbow. Kansas City hosts Arizona the following week and is a much bigger favorite there, with Novig at -1011.